手机行业什么时候没落?

The Downfall of Mobile Device Industry ?

2009-03-29 原载： http://zhouping62.blog.sohu.com/113312216.html

Why asking this question ? The deluge of mobile phones by small business in Shenzhen makes many people fall into acute pain of competition, they start to re-consider, is there any business opportunity in mobile phone business ? or more broadly, is there any opportunity in mobile device business ?

To understand the answer, it helpful to have a imagination to the Terminator of human being's demand to mobile communication and information process device.

My imagination of this Terminator is as following:

Every body can download and upload to somewhere any type of media data, no matter a video clip, or a image or text data, can control every home device, at anywhere, even at the peak of Everest, with a device which has the following 5 characteristics:

1. A3 in display size

2. 300 dpi in display resolution

3. 300g in device weight

4. No charge for 30 days’ use, 24 hours a day.

5. 30 Mbps in uplink and downlink communication data rate.

Because there is a 3 in each characteristics I named it as 5/3 Limit.

I will have no demand to any mobile device, if I have this ultimate one in hand. That means, if every body has the same thinking as mine, there will be no further innovation as to mobile device, the industry will be as normal as a coffee shop or a shoes shop, no barrier to anybody who wants hand-make a mobile IT device. That means, on the other hand, the ultimate prosperity of few component manufacturers, and downfall of device integrators.

To make this Terminator happen, how long will technology innovation or revolution take?

Today, the precision of TFT LCD is about 100 dpi. To get 300 dpi, and still meet the request of 300g in weight, I imagine we need to have a kind of display technology like e-paper. The period is roughly 40 years from invention of LCD to today for it to get popular in every family. Some one may ask why you need 300 dpi, 200 ppi is enough for human eye to recognize the difference of colors, my answer is just look at any picture printed from a film.

I don’t know how many generations of technology innovations is needed, if we as sume another 2 generations for evolution of display technology, this is to say, we need another 60 years.

We use Li-Ion Battery(LIB) to supply energy to mobile devices today. If we demand 30 days’ use without charge, and the weight of the device is less than 300g, we need revolutionary “Battery”, Can we rely on superconductive battery, or can we invest a handy nuclear power generator. I don’t how long it will take with human’s wisdom.

Regarding to data rate, it is 14.4 Mbps for HSDPA and 42 Mbps for HSPA+ in Maximum. We know actual data rate is much lesser than this data rate today. To reach 30 Mbps for each user, the wireless network has to evolve another 2 generations. We can assume the life time of each generation is 20 years, this is to say, we need another 40 years. If I want 30 Mbps at the peak of Everest, it may take yet another 2 generations.

It is much more easier regarding to data processing capability and memory technology. Mission of these technologies should be capable to save power.

How do you think ?